Category: Ideas

  • The Great Houses Dismissed The Signs. Now What?

    The Great Houses Dismissed The Signs. Now What?

    Mr. Trump sold himself a cowboy. But the USA is an automatic car. And it turns out the new President only knows the concepts of max speed and handbrake. Who will supervise?

    In this paper, I argue that Mr. Trump is a “two-speed” president who takes apart long-running US strategy to China.

    ‘The Trump trade crisis’ is being discussed by many as a great debacle, landing on the same conclusions. In this piece, I present that the President follows his past dreams. Second, that the real problem is that the target, not the process, of his dream aligns with long-term US-China trade policy.

    And history is our guide. There are two topics we need to get familiar with.

    First, a multitude of stories went somewhat unnoticed, that tell us that Mr. Trump has long-term agendas.

    The second, now totally unfound in media, is that successive US administrations had built a strategy to deter China following a hostile route and stealing intellectual-property.

    And unfortunately Mr. Trump’s long-term agenda may easily dismantle, and already eroded, the longstanding strategy that is in the interest of the U.S.

    First, let’s flash out what we see Mr. Trump doing day and night. This is what I call the first speed. A lot of garbled information, Trump said this, Trump said that, there is strategy, there is no strategy, he did it, he didn’t do it. 

    About a week ago Mr. Trump said:

    “They were saying that for Easter, please don’t use eggs. Could you use plastic eggs? I said, we don’t want to do that1“.

    And with that he introduced new taxes on trade with varying degrees on all countries, including islands populated only by penguins2. 

    This is what the media is focused on. And what else they could do, drawing conclusions, forming opinions, telling everyone Mr. Trump is a sucker. Go home. End of article.

    But, there is a second-speed of Mr Trump. It is not exciting. It is not media sensationalism. It does not leave room for fantasy and opinion making. So it does not get spotlight.

    Therefore it’s not in front of you now, that Mr. Trump has been very consistent with his foreign policy. In 1987, Mr. Trump argued in a paid advertisement3, that he believes that fiscal deficit is a problem and that countries should pay for protection. 

    And since, he has persistently criticized U.S. allies for not paying their:

    “fair share4“

    for defense, a position he maintained for decades. And while doing so, Mr. Trump frequently criticized5 American political leadership as weak, ineffective, and outmaneuvered by foreign countries long before entering politics himself.

    What makes the above relevant now? It is the other consistent topic of the President. Mr. Trump expressed skepticism about free trade agreements and advocated for protectionist policies long before running for president. In 2016 for instance, Mr. Trump said:

    “We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country, and that’s what we’re doing6.”

    Prior to his presidency, Mr. Trump criticized China’s trade practices for decades, consistently viewing them as taking advantage of the United States economically.

    Lastly. Among many other states, the USA has kept a watchful eye on the doings of China. And since at least 2009 with the Obama Presidency, administration7 after administration8 moved to strengthening US national security, trade and Made-in-America products that were specifically designed to protect from Chinese measures. All this, in order to secure the stop of technological transfer (or steal) and to improve national security, which is arguably one if not the most important service a state must provide to its citizenry.

    In retrospect, the new trade conundrum initiated by President Trump is somewhere in the direction of longstanding U.S. strategy. The U.S. has been consistent with building national security9 and stop the stealing1011 of U.S. intellectual property run12 by China13. On the other end, for almost three decades, a trade war between China and the USA has been a very dear topic of President Trump. And it has been the dream of Mr. Trump to retaliate against allies and smaller states or media14. And talk Good about states15 manipulating161718 the President19.

    But it was not long-term strategy of successive U.S. Presidents to throw the good out with the bad. Handling China is one thing and that had been done previously following procedure. But risking inflation and price increases and put the welfare of the U.S. in shambles is not procedure. We can make sense of all this, and see the scenario that there is a high chance that China was the only real target of the trade chaos and others were expendable and probably the target of “Art20 of the deal”. But it is not U.S. interest to be hostile with allies and not-knowing weaker states, not mentioning penguins and leaving out adversaries21. It is the almost 400 million American citizens whose interest must be followed.

    To correct direction, Congress and Senate must do its job. The job to make and clarify policies and direct the executive branch, in other words the President, to revise path and follow a route of long-term U.S. policy. Congress must also disincentivize the President, and make him understand that running the USA is state matter. We all love a President who takes the state to his heart. Congress must incentivize the President but give an opportunity to do good.

    And as for the civic society. The public perception of Congress is 31%22. Worst, in the last 16 years it was lower only once. And I think it’s partly due to the numbness created by continuous sensations.


    Now what?


    Let overstimulating sensations slip away. And tell people information they can use to make decisions.

    About the author

    Balint Katona writes about topics that go unnoticed.


    Footnote

    1. Elyse Perlmutter-Gumbiner, Vaughn Hillyard, Gary Grumbach and Megan Lebowitz. 2025. White House plans to use real eggs for Easter Egg Roll, despite strain on supply and price concerns. NBC News. https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/white-house-real-eggs-easter-egg-roll/6210803/) ↩︎
    2. Laerke Christensen. 2025. Yes, Trump placed tariffs on uninhabited group of islands occupied mainly by penguins. Snopes. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-tariffs-heard-and-mcdonald-islands-penguins/ ↩︎
    3. Donald J. Trump. 1987. There is nothing wrong with America’s Foreign Defense Policy that a little backbone can’t cure. New York Times. https://flaglerlive.com/wp-content/uploads/donald-trump-1987-nyt-ad_edited-1.pdf ↩︎
    4. Naomi Lim. 2025. Trump to demand NATO allies ‘pay their fair share’. Washington Examiner. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/white-house/3345637/trump-demand-nato-allies-pay-fair-share/) ↩︎
    5. Pot Opinions Staff. 2016. A transcript of Donald Trump’s meeting with The Washington Post editorial board. Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2016/03/21/a-transcript-of-donald-trumps-meeting-with-the-washington-post-editorial-board/ ↩︎
    6. Andrew Buncombe. 2016. Donald Trump accuses China of ‘raping’ the US with its trade policy. Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-accuses-china-of-raping-the-us-with-its-trade-policy-a7009946.html ↩︎
    7. Press Office. 2012. FACT SHEET: The Obama Administration’s Unprecedented Trade Enforcement Record. White House. https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/fact-sheets/2015/january/fact-sheet-obama-administration’s ↩︎
    8. Statements and Releases. 2024. FACT SHEET: President Biden Takes Action to Protect American Workers and Businesses from China’s Unfair Trade Practices. White House. https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/05/14/fact-sheet-president-biden-takes-action-to-protect-american-workers-and-businesses-from-chinas-unfair-trade-practices/ ↩︎
    9. Derek Scissors. 2021. The Rising Risk of China’s Intellectual-property Theft. American Enterprise Institue/National Review. https://www.aei.org/articles/the-rising-risk-of-chinas-intellectual-property-theft/. ↩︎
    10. Glenn Chafetz. 2023. How China’s Political System Discourages Innovation and Encourages IP Theft. The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies https://saisreview.sais.jhu.edu/how-chinas-political-system-discourages-innovation-and-encourages-ip-theft/ ↩︎
    11. Michael McCaul et al. 2020. Egregious Cases of Chinese Theft of American Intellectual Property. White House. https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Egregious-Cases-of-Chinese-Theft-of-American-Intellectual-Property.pdf ↩︎
    12. Walter G. Copan. 2022. China’s Ally in Stealing Western IP: The United States. Center for Strategic International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-ally-stealing-western-ip-united-states ↩︎
    13. Tsang, S., Cheung, O. Xi Jinping’s Approach to Acquire Strategic Technology from the West. East Asia 41, 301–323 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12140-024-09431-https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12140-024-09431-1 ↩︎
    14. Peter Hessler. 2017. How Trump is transforming rural America. New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/07/24/how-trump-is-transforming-rural-america)
      ↩︎
    15. Uri Friedman. 2019. INSIDE THE COLLAPSE OF TRUMP’S KOREA POLICY. The Atlantic. I https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/12/donald-trump-kim-jong-un-north-korea-diplomacy-denuclearization/603748/ ↩︎
    16. Harry Cheadle. 2017. A Timeline of Trump’s Long History with Russia. Vice. https://www.vice.com/en/article/a-timeline-of-trumps-long-history-with-russia/ ↩︎
    17. Lily Rotham. 2016. When Donald Trump Tried to Meet With a Russian Leader in the 1980s. Time. https://time.com/4437403/trump-gorbachev-history/ ↩︎
    18. Abbie VanSickle. 2017. Confused by Trump’s Russia Ties? This timeline breaks it down for you. Medium. https://medium.com/@abbievansickle/timeline-of-trumps-relationship-to-russia-5e78c7e7f480 ↩︎
    19. https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2017/03/politics/trump-putin-russia-timeline/ ↩︎
    20. Scott Horsley. 2018. How Artful Is Trumps’s Dealmaking? NPR. https://www.npr.org/2018/06/07/617677566/how-artful-is-trumps-dealmaking ↩︎
    21. Peter Goo, 2025. Trump’s trade war targets an island full of penguins, but Russia faces no new tariffs. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/trump-trade-war-penguin-tariffs-islands-antarctica-rcna199652 ↩︎
    22. Congress, Job approval, Politics, Trends A to Z. 2025. Congress and the Public Gallup. https://news.gallup.com/poll/1600/congress-public.aspx ↩︎

    Shall we let you know when news arrive?

    We do it once in a month.

  • Great, we are better off when you influence norms positively.

    Great, we are better off when you influence norms positively.

    In the Global North, the different parts of the political aisle have been relying on each other and normalized negative behavior. And change requires a look inside.

    Cooking has always been my passion. and yet I can’t help but feel anxious as I invite you to my kitchen. I am aware. Everyone is already full of what is coming. Because, today, we will cook together not a meal, but a possibility to our future that challenges perspectives and beliefs and at the end offers a solution to ease us and bring us closer.

    Something that needs to be told, one that may not sit well with everyone, but is necessary for us to grow as individuals and as a society – in Canada, Europe or the US – today. This1 has been told by many during the last decades. The closure will help us invite more people to the table.

    Sunday, 24th of November, 2024. And we got three ingredients to prepare. One is a short story from the recent past. And two are headlines of two current articles with added explanation. 

    And the recipe2 goes, put the three together, clean up; what is left is our shared story that leads us to a new beginning.

    Let’s roll back the clock, – 10 years, to 2014.

    Amidst the chaos of war, political persecution, and natural disasters, countless individuals are forced to leave their homes behind. Their only option is to flee to unknown lands in search of safety and stability. But even as they escape danger, they cannot help but feel conflicted about leaving everything they have ever known behind.

    The exodus3 of people4 , has led them to seek refuge in Europe.

    For a fleeting moment, they were known as Refugees5. The weight of the label hung heavy on their shoulders, a constant reminder of the tragedy that had befallen them. But in that same breath, they were also survivors – strong and resilient in the face of adversity. And while the world may have labeled it, again for a short time, a “Refugee Crisis,” to these individuals it was simply their existence now – one of struggle and perseverance.

    And behold, two main narratives start to surface, not by refugees, but by their imagined protectors6. In a world where countless narratives are contemplated next to our kitchen tables, there are only two that mattered.

    The first narrative goes something like7.

    The people fleeing have to be let in. Europe is a place that welcomes those who are not lucky. Europe is a refuge for those who are not fortunate enough to stay in their home countries; they must be allowed entry without a standard procedure and framework to accommodate as they flee from danger. Our nations can handle it, as we are the richest union ever existed8.

    Ironically, this narrative is fueled by parties who are not directly involved in the discussion due to their part of the puzzle. Specifically, the media9 provided a platform for various forms of messaging that often had moral arguments but offered no solutions. These pieces were filled with emotion, rather than targeted towards finding real solutions. This type of unfocused approach to reaching a larger audience may have contributed to the current situation in the US where the main political agenda of the president-elect involves deporting people.

    If there is one thing everyone understands sitting next to a kitchen table, is this.

    This narrative confidently dismissed any notion of a solution to this complex problem, unwilling to consider any alternative frameworks.

    For citizens of the European Union it was frustratingly clear that this narrative was content with the sweet status quo and was not open to any other potential resolution. But as the citizenry watched this narrative continue on the same narrow path, remaking the same old recipe, a batch of fresh air happened to slip in the kitchen window. And with it, a voice wondered still. If maybe there was another way, if perhaps a different perspective could bring about a breakthrough.

    So comes the other narrative.

    A tiny group that holds the second narrative. Tiny, but peppered, this group had a very thorough, planned out, communicated and formalized strategy. A key element of such a strategy is the malignant use of communication, and language.

    It goes without saying that this strategy has been employed numerous times throughout human existence, and can be easily duplicated because of its simplicity. The key is to remain consistent in all actions, but that is the only aspect necessary for it to be effective.

    The second narrative sound like:

    They are out there. Killing women and children. But. We are going to build walls. And everyone will know throughout our board10 and campaigns, loud and clear. They are not welcome here.

    Only two elements I need to mention from the non-physical part.

    The strategy consistently uses keywords:

    We are illiberal.

    We do not let in Migrants11.

    Perhaps the kitchen got too noisy12 but I urge everyone to sit for what comes next and shake that clock.

    Return to 2024. We are left with the two remaining ingredients, the headlines:

    “For the first time in its history, we could be looking at a genuinely rightwing European Union ”13
    Alberto Alemanno, 2024, The Guardian.
    “Behind Trump’s victory lies a cold reality: liberals have no answers for a modern age in crisis “14
    Nesrine Malik, 2024, The Guardian.

    Now that we have all15 the necessary pieces, it’s time to start cleaning up and chop everything to bitesize. I kindly ask you to let me be your knife for this experiment.

    So in the first article, we hear the whisper that the EU is becoming rightwing. The reason being, the article suggests, that the parties representing the centrum and the status quo; not having their own set of ideas, adopt one from a party that labels itself, rightwing.

    It’s like, your family is vegetarian, and you have no food, so you go out and hunt a game. Basically, what this referenced article says is that the centrists want to push out the right-wing by becoming right-wing.

    Further in the second article, it turns out that the liberals lost their way; because they don’t have ideas.

    It’s like, your family is vegan, and there is only meat available in the market, so you will starve to death.

    Uh, this kitchen got very heated, let some air in…

    Balint Katona / Civic Anchor

    10 years ago, the prime-minister of Hungary defined the country illiberal, and hence defined everything else in the European Union as liberal.

    This language trick was then slow-cooked and got served in households all over, becoming the norm.

    While deliberately boiling, a nourishing element almost got 100% vaporized, just as planned.

    That it is the liberal idea that gave birth to the illiberal idea. It was the moderate people that made the bed for the right wing agenda. Today, the centrists of the European Union want to adopt the ideas of the illiberal prime minister; suggesting the centrists were never different from what they opposed, it was just a jumpy holiday dinner.

    Yet, we are left with the plain old definition of what liberal16 means. That we have free speech and everyone can get their opinion. 

    But if you are louder and more consistent17 then you win the game.

    The more aggressive you are in language, or in whatever way, you will have your way.

    And here is why this language further18 creates needless steam, not only, in the kitchen.

    The parties historically representing the center talk about both the internal (economy, health, education etc) and external problems (immigration, war, climate). But for reasons not outlined here, they lack the means of acting on all with high efficiency. Meaning, that however well-intended they are, with varying measures, they let everyone down.

    On the other end, the “illiberal” establishment is focused. And blame the problems, even those they created, and everything (war, other countries, famous people, foreign institutions) on the externals (and what they label as such) to make the citizenry agitated. But illiberals never deliver, they got no policies that stand the tooth of time, no economy, nothing. They shape the legal system to their liking so they are legally able to do whatever. Illiberals use language to destroy norms and create falsehoods. For instance, illiberals label themselves Christian but in every step of the way violate the 10 Commandments.

    Loudly, in the name of free speech, this type of host asks around who wants to eat and what. Maybe you won’t be able to sit down, your chair might disappear, depending if you wear a label of loyal service to a figure. And no matter what, you will be served with pigwash; blamed on someone down the street.

    But, here is the deal. We can make some19 decisions here and now. If we do not let bad actors form a society based on false norms. So we need to capture this moment and not let anyone hack20 the language but use it for good.

    As a good meal caters to our body and mind; we can find our own language that satiates our appetite and makes our mind find ways and soothe instead of making us anxious21. This comes with a price. And the price of this is not free, contrary to the general opinion22.

    The price is that there is discipline at the table. Rules that you can never ever break because then your kitchen timer is off.

    And at this table, the conversation never stops. 

    To conclude the day, we need to take care of ourselves23. At this moment, there is only some we can share around the table. As we need to take care of our family, friends, neighbors, and homes.

    After we are all fed and secure, we are able to find meaningful ways to help others with resilient solutions that will not weaken our core.

    About the author

    Balint Katona writes about topics that go unnoticed.

    Footnote

    1. On the pages of the British Journal of Political Science, Armin Schäfer in 2021, Gabor Sheiring and his team (2024) talked about this phenomena in different terms, calling it a backlash. ↩︎
    2. In 2022 Lisbeth A. Pino Gavidia talked about this like social constructivism, “Critical Narrative Inquiry: An Examination of a Methodological Approach
      Lisbeth A. Pino Gavidia, MPH, PhD(c) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5810-2224 lpino2@uwo.ca, and Joseph Adu, MPhil, MSc, PhD(c) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6535-2029View all authors and affiliations
      All Articles https://doi.org/10.1177/16094069221081594 ↩︎
    3. Zack Beauchamp wrote about The Syrian refugee crisis, explained in one map in 2015. https://www.vox.com/2015/9/27/9394959/syria-refugee-map ↩︎
    4. Note from the author: A future article will elaborate on why this happened, and the policy reasoning {Terror and antiterror as policy} ↩︎
    5. Camila Ruz, 2015, The battle over the words used to describe migrants https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-34061097 ↩︎
    6. Phillip Connor, 2018, A majority of Europeans favor taking in refugees, but most disapprove of EU’s handling of the issue
      https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2018/09/19/a-majority-of-europeans-favor-taking-in-refugees-but-most-disapprove-of-eus-handling-of-the-issue/ ↩︎
    7. Matthew Karnitschnig, 2015. Merkel’s migrant morality play. https://www.politico.eu/article/willkommen-germany-refugees-migration-takes-the-moral-high-ground/ ↩︎
    8. Note from the author: As a future side dish, in a coming article, I will elaborate on this mainstream agenda. {Popular, means populist.} ↩︎
    9. Michelle Reddy, Hélène Thiollet et al. in 2023. The Making of a Crisis: Migration and Polarization in the French Press https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764223118327 ↩︎
    10. Note from the author:In Hungary the ads/board campaign was in Hungarian, but was in singular or plural second person. For instance “If you come to Hungary, you can’t get the job of Hungarians.” Evidently a Syrian refugee can not understand it. ↩︎
    11. Note from the author: There went the word refugee, mind you. Later we return to the illiberal word. ↩︎
    12. Emmet Livingstone, 2016, wrote about the change of messaging “Angela Merkel drops the ‘we can do it’ slogan”
      https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-drops-the-we-can-do-it-slogan-catchphrase-migration-refugees/ ↩︎
    13. Alberto Alemanno, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/18/european-union-right-wing-ursula-von-der-leyen-eu-commission-hard-right-parties ↩︎
    14. Nesrine Malik, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/18/donald-trump-victory-liberals-modern-crisis-neoliberal ↩︎
    15.  Jan Fredrik Hovden and Rafal Zaborowski, 2024.The space of immigrant discourse in the European press. https://doi.org/10.7146/mk.v40i77.141528 ↩︎
    16.  Cambridge Dictionary: believing in or allowing a lot of personal freedom, and believing that society should change gradually so that money, property, and power are shared more fairly ↩︎
    17.  Cathrine Jansson-Boyd, 2024, https://theconversation.com/repeated-political-soundbites-can-influence-how-people-think-even-if-they-disagree-with-the-message-232838 ↩︎
    18.  De Coninck, D., Ogan, C., Willnat, L., & d’Haenens, L. (2019, October). Media use and attitudes
      toward immigrants and refugees in Western Europe and the United States      . Paper presented at
      ECREA Digital Fortress Europe Conference, Brussels, Belgium. ↩︎
    19.  Céline Cantat, Antoine Pécoud, Hélène Thiollet. Migration as Crisis. American Behavioral Scientist,
      2023, 23 p. https://doi.org/10.1177/000276422311832 ↩︎
    20.  David Blanco-Herrero, Javier J. Amores, Patricia Sánchez-Holgado. 2023. Criminals, terrorists and freeloaders: how migrants are portrayed in the European media. https://theconversation.com/criminals-terrorists-and-freeloaders-how-migrants-are-portrayed-in-the-european-media-208524?utm_source=clipboard&utm_medium=bylinecopy_url_button ↩︎
    21.  Greussing, E., & Boomgaarden, H. G. (2017). Shifting the refugee narrative? An automated frame analysis of Europe’s 2015 refugee crisis. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 43(11), 1749–1774. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2017.1282813 ↩︎
    22.   What Do Europeans Think About Muslim Immigration? 2023, Chatham House,  https://www.chathamhouse.org/2017/02/what-do-europeans-think-about-muslim-immigration ↩︎
    23.  Michael Ignatieff, Juliette Keeley, Betsy Ribble and Keith McCammon. 2016. The United States and the European Refugee Crisis: Standing with Allies.
      https://shorensteincenter.org/us-european-refugee-crisis-standing-with-allies/ ↩︎

    Shall we let you know when news arrive?

    We do it once in a month.